Using explainable AI to reduce risk and improve efficie...
CrowdFlex, a National Energy System Operator (NESO) project, is demonstrating how households can help increase flexibility in the British energy grid by shifting when and how they use energy.
Britain’s shift to clean power hinges on greater flexibility. As wind and solar grow, supply fluctuates with the weather, making it harder to keep supply and demand in balance. Without flexibility, the grid would fall back on fossil-fuelled plants, undermining decarbonisation.
To make the most of renewable power, the grid needs to know when and where flexibility is available. We are working with NESO to develop forecasting models, trained on CrowdFlex trial data, that predict this flexibility nationwide. These insights will support better-informed balancing decisions across the network.
Proving the Potential of Domestic Flexibility
The latest CrowdFlex winter trials, involving over 100,000 households, have shown that consumers reliably shift their electricity use up or down in response to clear signals and incentives. The results confirm that domestic flexibility can be a powerful part of Britain’s future energy mix. In practice, that means lower bills, fewer costly network upgrades, and progress towards decarbonisation.
With this potential now demonstrated, the focus turns to making domestic flexibility an operational asset in day-to-day grid balancing and long-term planning.
Turning Trial Data into Forecasting Power
We are supporting CrowdFlex with our advanced probabilistic modelling expertise and deep energy sector experience. Using the millions of datapoints from the trials, we are developing models that forecast the flexibility available at different times of day and in different regions of Britain.
The models capture patterns in participation and the influence of factors like weather, time, and location. By estimating both the range and likelihood of available flexibility, they will give NESO the insight needed to decide when and how to call on domestic flexibility and to plan back-up reserves with greater confidence. This capability supports both real-time balancing decisions and the design of long-term strategies for a net zero grid.
Next Steps for CrowdFlex
CrowdFlex is continuing to test new incentives and engagement approaches to strengthen domestic flexibility. We will keep working with NESO to update and refine our models using the latest trial data. As the evidence base grows, it will inform future flexibility markets that are reliable, cost effective, and aligned with net zero goals.
We’re proud that our modelling expertise is helping to unlock domestic flexibility as a robust, efficient part of Britain’s clean energy future.
